How does the Future of Web Design/development look?

Didnt they say that about Frontpage, Dreamweaver and the likes?

The future of design/development is always going to bottom out at some point (this is very long term) as there are only so many people and so many businesses in the world, sure they all will need updating and adjusted but creations will one day be slim.

There are still people selling frontpage created sites (one page) for a couple hundred dollars, these are good and bad, bad because they take the work away from pro's but good because it makes what they charge worth it.

But also all these people trying to get rich quick with websites, there are scaring a lot of people away, same with spam, people get sick of it and find other means.

I think you'll be safe for a long time yet

That's what I was thinking, never hurts to be save and research a little .

I relate it to the accounting jobs being taken outside the US. My accounting teachers up at ASU say that the jobs being taken out of the country are the really really easy ones. The type of jobs that H&R Block does (the people there usually don't have accounting degrees, they just get certified in a training course for their specific function, and it's easy, simple stuff).

Even if there are templates and even programs to make webpages, they can't create a truly unique site for a specific individual/business. And if you can do web development... the back end coding (php/whatever) and databasing, then I think you are absolutely safe.

Busy, you do make a good point. Eventually most of the business that need one will have one. But business fail, and new businesses start up *all the time.* Hollywood makes new movies, game developers make new games. All of which need (or should have) a website.

There may, one day, be less room for the huge amount of web designers today... but I believe the industry is safe for some time.

That's been my opinion, just looking for others

I actually think that we are just starting to figure out what works in web design and what it should be. I think there may be an even bigger future market for professional web development work as people realize that simple do-it-yourslef type sites just don't work. As Busy mentioned, tools like Front Page and Dreamweaver do make website creation easy on a basic technical level. The problem is that making a good site takes so much more than just writing the code (which these programs can do for you). I also think that there's a lot of potential to move towards more business and marketing oriented design. i.e. website design being more than pasting together some static information and pretty graphics. That's what it is for a lot of "designers" and it's really much more than that.

I also think that there are a lot of possibilites out there that haven't been fully developed as of yet. Even in the last year a lot of new online tools have come up (things like flickr, basecamp, del.icio.us, that sort of thing) that add another level of interactivity to the web. There are a lot of possibilites there that haven't been thought of yet, I think.

At this point I think html and http are going no where fast. While desktop programming is just starting to tap into the web. After attending the latest microsoft conference I feel that windows is taking a step to make the internet more cutting edge. Programs are starting to move to being run remotely and/or locally.

The quality of the internet is not getting any better and the "wow" factor is picking up more. I think unless the W3 gets on the ball microsoft will make the internet program based and http will be for linux users.

Just think about it... instead of going a website for information. You will just open the program and get the same information.

Caution: This is just a theory I developed on the spot. I like old fashion html as much as anyone here. This, like every ones responses will happen over a long period of time.

Don't quite see where HTTP is "going nowhere"

HTTP is the protocol that web data delivery and web services runs on. Even if MS have their way with the desktop route, and they do keep trying to, (think about Sharepoint) The next Windows version pushes even more along this route, it will still need some protocol to deliver this data content.
HTTP is the simplest way, it's well developed, well supported and it works.

I ment the "ht" of "http" not the "tp"

Microsoft has been talking about doing software delivery over the web for years. Unfortunately for them they missed the boat on the real innovation over the past few years and are scrambling to catch up. Other companies, such as Google and others, have made a lot of headway into making the web more interactive and using it for a wider variety of applications - applications that would formerly be restricted to the desktop. I think there's a lot of potential in both directions between the desktop and the web. Device and platform independence are an important part of this.

There is now a whole generation of people who have grown up with technology. They are just getting into adulthood now and I think there's a lot of potential for innovation as this generation grows older. Technology is ingrained into their lives in a way that it hasn't been for other generations. They will expect more of that, and will surely do a lot of technological innovations themseves.

I think in some ways Microsoft is holding back the growth of a lot of areas

Busy wrote: Microsoft is holding back the growth of a lot of areas

Quite, when was the last version of ie?! They're doing it for good reason too, but I've harped on about them protecting their API before.

Now it seems MS are aiming for Windows to at the heart of everyones "digital lifestyle." ( http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4583342.stm ).

Seems to me they're playing catchup with Apple's iTunes, whilst this list of features reads like a list of things anyone can do with Linux and a copy of FVWM.
Screenshots:

• http://www.fvwm.org/screenshots/desktops/Nuno_Alexandre-1600x1200/screenshot.jpg
• http://www.fvwm.org/screenshots/desktops/Pierre-Eric_Marchandet-1600x1200/screenshot.jpg
• http://fvwm-themes.sourceforge.net/screenshots/full/transparent.jpg

Yes the default fvwm looks hideous, but it's what you can do with it that counts.

So what are Microsoft doing? Copying everyone else and playing catchup.

They attempted to stymie the development of the web for as long as was possible by not developing ie, now the early adopters are ditching their browser and encouraging everyone else to do the same. As the rest of the world is overtaking them they're radically changing track.

But do remember these claims are a little grandiose, at one time the guys at MS actually thought they were going to be at the centre of every transaction on the Internet. They invisaged Microsoft commission from every sale. That never happened, thankfully. I also do not believe in Microsoft being the centre of the "digital lifestyle," not unless the server's running Linux or MS buy Apple completely

And the main reason they want to do software delivery over the web is because then they can charge yearly subscription rates for it rather than a one-time purchse. Typical.

Online marketing hasn't fully developed yet and is the biggest growth area in the advertising industry.

I read an interesting article in the Sunday Times which talks about something i have been thinking about for a while. IT professionals need to diversify. You can't expect to get trained in in Dreamweaver, Flash etc. and then presume you are going to doing well.

A stereotypical look at IT professionals is that communication skills are normally poor, i notice that within my team every day. You now have to be prepared, and want to learn business management skills as well as get clued up with general marketing (what most websites are after all...).

It's going to be very hard to make a success of an IT business these days. Sorry to go into stereotypes again but not many IT people are good at ideas. They're great at processes but not at creating ideas. You could probably get by, but if you REALLY want to be successful you're going to need a good team.

Good luck,

-Rob

I think the problem is genuinely with how people are programmed, as in people are dominated by their left or right side of the brain. Some people are into numbers, some into pictures, rarely people are both. That's why a well rounded team is the key.

Once i get some spare time i'd like to start a discussion and really get into the nitty gritty of how to improve web businesses. My aim is to become an online alternative to Wieden & Kennedy etc.

-Rob

Well, for sure i wouldn't say ignorance is an excuse. People should make at least an effort to understand different things but i don't believe everyone can be good at everything. The thing that differs the best from the rest is the ability to take on more than one expertise.

Yeah, a lot of ad agencies wouldn't know usabiliy if it smacked them in the face! But then they sub contract all their web work.

-Rob

I don't think programs will ever take over - they're just not creative enough.

With more and more people entering the industry I think the larger companies who pay workers lower wages and can do websites for lower costs will do very well in the future.

Hmmm thats why outsourcing works now doesnt it?

well i do think the term web designer should be dropped and professionals should have a name like digital artist to keep them well away from amateurs with those nasty frontpage programs or doing slice jobs in fireworks.

i think theres slowly a greater knowledge from clients on what they want on their site and how it should look. for the future i believe people/companies that can do the whole process - consult, research, layout, design, production, testing, & SEO should never be without a job.

i think web companies now are becoming alot more web solutions orientated providing online marketing strategies for their clients, providing in-house hosting, CMS for them to change their own site and more services like Print, photography and multimedia CDS & DVDS.

Some of my work comes from just being a contact or some from a previous site ive done and i am finding a greater appreciation for a professional service.

I think dynamic websites with rich content like forums, rss feeds will be the standard. Web Development will always be a career path especially for people who understand PHP, MYSQL and XML. The open source solutions are just not as good as a customised solution.

and then theres vector graphics which also im looking forward to seeing on every website

Yup, collaboration, two heads are better than one always...
But never be too dependent on each and everyones skills, since change is constant...
Try to learn as much as you can...

the old cliche of unsocial computer nerds who create sites is totally gone.
in addition to knowing the latest web technologies, and web programs, you need to have creative flair for theme/look, an action mind set that puts clients waffling ideas (of adding a full 3 megabyte song in the background) into a fully functional clean fast site.

And the personal skills now from emailing to visual contact with clients is amazing especially for freelancers. Project management is crucial to the success with deadlines and specialised work being put into the different stages of the site from design to testing to promotion.

I agree with you demonhale, designers with programmers knowledge (or at least understanding) is meaning people in this media industry are having to multi-skill to be indispensable.

I like new media designer megan. It also says Multimedia which should imply CDS, DVDS, film and photography.

Megan wrote: This was on Cameron Molls' blog the other day:

... Maybe I'm being haughty, and maybe "New Media" isn't the best term either."

"New Media" is terribly ambiguous. At first glance, it seems like marketing-speak to me. What will the "New Media Designer" of today (equivalent to a "Web Designer") be known as tomorrow, when the web is no longer New Media?

ilovefrontpage wrote: I like new media designer megan. It also says Multimedia which should imply CDS, DVDS, film and photography.

Film and photography are hardly new.

ilovefrontpage wrote: the old cliche of unsocial computer nerds who create sites is totally gone.

Oi, I resemble that remark!

cheers nothing like a conversation to get the opinions out.

this forum doesnt get enough posts/comments on a day to day basis which is a shame.

bluegrassjeff: you should get a designer to have alook at your site

That's very true, Pete. I'm seeing a lot more idea people coming to the web and wanting to do things online again. It's sort of like a rebirth of the dot-com boom of the late 90's. Of course, there have been a lot of lessons learned there and hopefully now people will be smarter about it!

Quote: What professional designers and developers need to do is catch up with the latest web design trends to survive in the competition.

I totally agree with this. The web is starting to move in a new direciton in a lot of ways, and we need to keep up.

Quote: It's sort of like a rebirth of the dot-com boom of the late 90's.

It is exactly that, there was an item on the World Service about this recently. They were directly comparing the current Web Rennaisance with what happened in the late 90's.

Found a related news story: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4333899.stm it's not that story but definately supports it.

I also believe it will take a long time for WYSWYG editors to be able to code strict XHTML, CSS, PHP, MySQL with no coding required. They'll not be anywhere near as efficient as a human.

I'm not saying never, but not for a while at least.

So, if the direction of the web is changing and such, what would you advise new webmaster-hopefulls to learn in order to be competitive? I am personally working towards knowing css/php/mysql/photoshop/illustrator as well as studying design (database design/graphic design).

anyway, interesting conversation here

I don't think you can do everything well. You have to specialize to some extent. You've got quite a laundry list of stuff there.

We could look at this in terms of a continuum of three possible specializations - graphics/front-end design, mid-end design, and programming. Most of us "web designers" end up as mid-end designers because we can't compete with people who have really specialized training in graphic design or programming (although there is some leeway in both directions). You probably won't be able to do everything well so you'll have to concentrate on what you do well and get others to do what's outside of your range of expertise.

SEO and Marketing are also important factors that many designers fail to consider. As discussed in other parts of the thread, the business kills is what is going to make or break a professional, especially if your'e planning on working on your own. The ability to market a site that you've created and also to market yourself as a professional and build business relationships with clients and colleagues.

If you want to be a mid-end designer you'll need to know a little bit of graphic design (enough to know when you need to subcontract a logo design or print work!), layout design, xhtml and CSS inside out (this means standards compliant design), a fair amount of SEO and marketing (enough to do a decent job yourself, and to know when to subcontract serious SEO work), and an overview of backend programming (what technologies are available, how to do some basic script installation and such, and when to contract out more serious work). If you have the talent you could go further in either direction (graphic design or programming).

IMO, knowing how to do all this should be secondary to the overall technique - good design, usability, marketing. The ability to make a site work for what it's intended to do (sell a product etc.). I think that's why web design has failed for so many in the past - they focus on what it looks like and how to code it up, not wheter the site is achieving its business objectives.

This is just my opinion, I'm sure others will have different perspectives.

I think you're right, if I try to do *everything* I'll fail. Which is why I'm not. I'm focusing on the business aspect, running a good business/getting clients/etc, and the graphical side of things, which would include function as well as form.

The first thing I want to do with the business is get to a stage where I can hire a programmer. While programming comes easy to me, I enjoy it and I can do it, I much prefer design. I already have taken 2 classes on databases, one of which focused a lot on SQL programming. So I have a bit of a headstart on learning MySQL and databases in general, picking up php won't be too hard if I'm not trying to do extremely challanging things. But I really just want to know enough to get by. Plus it will give me a better understanding of what's possible with it, and what I can expect from an employee (as well as being able to discuss jobs with him on a better level).

As for the business end of things.. I graduate at the end of this year (or may next year if I decide to) with a degree in business management and accounting, which includes courses on marketing and such. So I have a basic understanding of business. With additional study, and asking people with more knowledge than me, I believe I will be ok on the business side of things.

With that said, do you still say I'll fail? (and why)

Also, do you (the forum) think it is best to hire full-time employees or contract work out?

Ha! I wouldn't say that anyone will fail! What do I know, really. Sounds like you've got a good foundation to build on (although, I don't really understand why you're spending so much time learning databases on PHP if you intend to concentrate on the graphical side of things. Good to have an overview, yes, but taking courses on it might not be the best use of your time and money.).

I would say that subcontracting work will probably be the best thing to do. Then you don't have to worry about all the complications of hiring an employee (like salary, taxation issues, providing benefits and vacation time etc.). It may come to the point where you'll want to do that but I wouldn't plan on doing that from the start.

Heh, the accounting program at ASU requires those database classes. Some accountants really do go into that stuff heavily, but I believe they do it just so we can talk to database people on a deeper level. The alternative is to be clueless.

*edit: They require basic database classes, one of which went into SQL and such. I would be learning the basics of php and MySQL on my own.*

Ah, I see.

Really, the only way you're going to fail is if you can't find work for youself. I think what happens to a lot of web designers who try to go out on their own is that they think they'll be able to spend all day quietly by themselves designing websites. Then they don't get any clients and can't make a living. Or people quit their day jobs before they have enough business to pay the bills. This might be tough just coming out of school. Getting business will probably be your biggest hurdle.

tallon wrote: As some of you know, I am working towards opening a web design/development business. I've been talking to people about my ideas and my goals. Some of the people have very strong opinions that the web design/development industry's future looks bleak.

They believe programs will make web design so easy that there will not be a need for companies to do it.

Stuff like that.

So, I'm curious what your opinions are (and if you know any good articles on the subject of the future outlook of web design/development). Do you believe businesses will have that hard a time surviving in this industry? Do you think major changes will have to be done to stay in business? (and if so, what kind?)

Even though our company provides content tools and web tools for webmasters and bloggers I still see the need for web designers. In my opinion you shall concentrate on very specific areas of web design and be an expert in this field. People will always need experts.

Good luck